Saturday, November 5, 2016

Pro-Life Donald Trump's Numbers Continue To Rise In Key "Swing State"

Pro-life Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence
NRTL /Dave Andrusko reporting:   If there’s anything we can say for certain–besides that pro-life Donald Trump is closing fast on pro-abortion Hillary Clinton–it is that whatever pro-lifers can do on behalf of unborn babies, it could easily be pivotal in an election that is expected to be decided by a razor-thin margin. . . .

Here’s the latest as of late Friday morning, four days before Election Day.

Trump is closing the gap, almost by the hour, in those states, one or more of which he must win to become the next President, in addition to creating breathing space in “red” states that traditionally go Republican.

Reuters released a poll this morning that, as is typically the case, exaggerates Clinton’s standing. But the most important point is that her lead among early voters in pivotal states such as Florida and Ohio is much less than Obama’s four years ago.

In Florida “Clinton leads by 8 points among early voters,” according to Reuters’ Maurice Tamman. “In 2012, Obama led by about 15 points.” In Ohio “she leads by about 20 points among early voters. At this point in 2012, Obama led by about 30 points.”

Why? Tamman writes: It is not clear why Clinton’s early voting support has fallen short of Obama’s. The shift could indicate a broader cross-section of voters is casting early ballots than in 2012. But the drop might also foreshadow lower-than-expected turnout among the core Democratic constituencies who propelled Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012. . . .

Here’s the latest as of late Friday morning, four days before Election Day.

Trump is closing the gap, almost by the hour, in those states, one or more of which he must win to become the next President, in addition to creating breathing space in “red” states that traditionally go Republican.

Reuters released a poll this morning that, as is typically the case, exaggerates Clinton’s standing. But the most important point is that her lead among early voters in pivotal states such as Florida and Ohio is much less than Obama’s four years ago.

In Florida “Clinton leads by 8 points among early voters,” according to Reuters’ Maurice Tamman. “In 2012, Obama led by about 15 points.” In Ohio “she leads by about 20 points among early voters. At this point in 2012, Obama led by about 30 points.” . . .

What did we learn in the last two days? Before we go into that, as we have posted a hundred times, any poll, no matter how scrupulously fair, is based on a projected turnout model. If fewer Clinton supporters vote on November 8 than the model suggests, or more Trump supporters than anticipated fulfill their civic duty (or both), all predictions could be as out of date as yesterday’s newspaper.

First and foremost, the latest surveys in some of “swing states,” one or more of which Trump must carry, are trending in his direction.

I do understand that if you average a bunch of polls, Clinton remains ahead. But as we approach the finish line it’s those last surveys that carry the most weight.

To wit (to name just a few states):

New Hampshire. A WBUR/MassINC poll shows Trump leading by 2 points in a head-to-head with Clinton and one point in a four-way race that includes the Libertarian Party candidate and the Green Party candidate. Still another poll (Boston Globe/Suffolk University) has them tied at 42% in a four-way race.
A University of Colorado poll finds Trump and Clinton tied at 39%.
A Susquehanna Polling and Search survey reveals that Clinton’s lead over Trump is down to two points (45% to 43%) in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, a Fox News poll finds Clinton’s lead has shrunk to three points–47% to 44%.
In the all-important state of North Carolina, Trump has erased Clinton’s advantage and now holds a 7 point advantage in a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll.

. . . Stay tuned to NRL News Today which will have up to the moment coverage all the way through next Tuesday . . . Read More

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